Hello friends,A few weeks have passed since my last report, but not terribly much has happened. Since about mid-March, a short-term bottom has manifested and US indices have been rallying, though feebly and without conviction. Take a peak at the volume profile of some of the
It should come as no surprise to anyone that with a war on European soil, instability in numerous European countries, and a monumental push towards defense spending and NATO rearmament, companies supplying towards these ends should be expected to be doing quite fine.Indeed, as the
It might be too early to draw any valid conclusions, yet it sure appears that the lopsidedness of this market advance is finally chafing at its undercarriage like a good mix of salt and wet sand in the swimsuit on the beach.The current and highly-selective market advance
Ah, Sweden. Beautiful country, beautiful people. Few people know that the flagship brand "Absolut Vodka" is actually Swedish, not Russian. With some days as short as six hours, alcohol can be a problem there. In any case, the market is big enough for new competitors
As discussed on numerous occasions before, the 2023/24 rally has been largely predicated on a lopsided rally of mega-cap tech stocks on the waves of generative AI, while the other market segments (specifically small growth) has been whipsawing and/or flat for years. As the leaders
It should come as no surprise to anyone that with a war on European soil, instability in numerous European countries, and a monumental push towards defense spending and NATO rearmament, companies supplying towards these ends should be expected to be doing quite fine.Indeed, as the
It might be too early to draw any valid conclusions, yet it sure appears that the lopsidedness of this market advance is finally chafing at its undercarriage like a good mix of salt and wet sand in the swimsuit on the beach.The current and highly-selective market advance
Ah, Sweden. Beautiful country, beautiful people. Few people know that the flagship brand "Absolut Vodka" is actually Swedish, not Russian. With some days as short as six hours, alcohol can be a problem there. In any case, the market is big enough for new competitors
As discussed on numerous occasions before, the 2023/24 rally has been largely predicated on a lopsided rally of mega-cap tech stocks on the waves of generative AI, while the other market segments (specifically small growth) has been whipsawing and/or flat for years. As the leaders
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When people think about the stock market, two things often come to mind. One, the gambler, betting on stocks like horses in a race or numbers in a casino. Or, Two, the rational investor, long-term oriented and passively investing, or selecting companies by crunching numbers & analyzing
Money. As the universal medium for the exchange of value in our society, it has wide utility. One may gift it to their loved ones or people in need, hoard it under the mattress or in a bank, lend it out, use it to get
The Greek myth of Icarus is a classic – it is a cautionary tale reminding us that hubris, complacency, or unawareness of risk can bring down even the most popular high-flyers.Every bull market has a poster child, a cheerleader, a market seer – someone speaking
A simple approach to sector rotation analysis
You might have heard of sector rotation, or sector rotation theory - it is often taught in economics and finance courses. It generally looks at what economic segments of the market are preforming better than
Life expectancy of trends
Not just living beings or material objects age with time - market trends grow old too.The stock market moves either up in the long-term (the primary up-trend) interspersed with shorter counter-trends (the secondary corrections), down
Dixon G. Watts’ Rules For The Fine Speculator
It has been my experience that the older a still available book on the markets is, the more timeless its lessons truly are - for they have stayed relevant through the ups and downs of
5 Ways Your Broker Is Making You Broke
The purpose of a business is to make money, plain and simple - and the stock brokerage industry is certainly no different. 'Conflict of interest' is the term that probably best describes the problem surrounding the
Leaders Cracking In The AI Rally
As discussed on numerous occasions before, the 2023/24 rally has been largely predicated on a lopsided rally of mega-cap tech stocks on the waves of generative AI, while the other market segments (specifically small growth)
Engine failure in the FOMO stocks?
As discussed previously, the 2023/24 market advance which was mostly predicated on extreme concentration and money selectivity towards the blue-chip glamour stocks of the day, is showing yet more signs of percolating weakness.A bull/bear ratio
Signs of overheating?
Though we've seen a certain degree of broadening out in the market rally since the US elections, lately I can't help but spot some growing signs of exuberance appearing.For one, the bull/bear ratio of advisors
Careful with illiquid IPO’s
In the past few days we kept seeing multiple IPO's collapse under massive selling pressure. Looking at the stocks, this represents nothing overly critical to the market, owing to their small size & limited relevance
The paper under your mattress
Here comes the pain” has become the mantra over the last year for people holding onto their darling stocks. The NASDAQ Composite has corrected 37% from November to its recent Low, index heavy-weights and blue-chips
Wait … just wait.
The markets are down – and to me, everything looks for them to stay so for the foreseeable future, barring some inevitable end-of-year volatility - possibly a late relief rally and most likely some late-December
The fallacy of valuations
I met a guy at the beginning of the year, who said that his calculations and online “research” had shown that Palantir (PLTR) was undervalued at $16, and that he had bought a sizable chunk