
Hello friends,A few weeks have passed since my last report, but not terribly much has happened. Since about mid-March, a short-term bottom has manifested and US indices have been rallying, though feebly and without conviction. Take a peak at the volume profile of some of the popular averages (SPX, Nasdaq Comp), marked by large volume on the down-move and light volume

Hello friends,A few weeks have passed since my last report, but not terribly much has happened. Since about mid-March, a short-term bottom has manifested and US indices have been rallying, though feebly and without conviction. Take a peak at the volume profile of some of the popular averages (SPX, Nasdaq Comp), marked by large volume on the down-move and light volume

Market Profiles

Market Insights

The bond market is not happy
If the bond market had a social life, it would be canceling brunch and texting, "We need to talk." Once the boring uncle of financial markets, bonds are now hosting more drama than some 'celebrities-on-a-yacht'

The next big thing
It should come as no surprise to anyone that with a war on European soil, instability in numerous European countries, and a monumental push towards defense spending and NATO rearmament, companies supplying towards these ends

Darlings to Duds
It might be too early to draw any valid conclusions, yet it sure appears that the lopsidedness of this market advance is finally chafing at its undercarriage like a good mix of salt and wet sand in

Vodka Pump’n’Dump
Ah, Sweden. Beautiful country, beautiful people. Few people know that the flagship brand "Absolut Vodka" is actually Swedish, not Russian. With some days as short as six hours, alcohol can be a problem there. In

Leaders Cracking In The AI Rally
As discussed on numerous occasions before, the 2023/24 rally has been largely predicated on a lopsided rally of mega-cap tech stocks on the waves of generative AI, while the other market segments (specifically small growth)

Engine failure in the FOMO stocks?
As discussed previously, the 2023/24 market advance which was mostly predicated on extreme concentration and money selectivity towards the blue-chip glamour stocks of the day, is showing yet more signs of percolating weakness.A bull/bear ratio

Signs of overheating?
Though we've seen a certain degree of broadening out in the market rally since the US elections, lately I can't help but spot some growing signs of exuberance appearing.For one, the bull/bear ratio of advisors

Careful with illiquid IPO’s
In the past few days we kept seeing multiple IPO's collapse under massive selling pressure. Looking at the stocks, this represents nothing overly critical to the market, owing to their small size & limited relevance

Will the Trump rally last?
Last week was home to two major market events, both slated within the US - general elections and the latest FOMC meeting. As quickly turned out, Trump would win this historical race, while Fed chairman

Fiscal frenzy and the ballooning stock market
This April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that it is expecting a fiscal deficit of 7.1% for the US next year - monstrous numbers, outranking other first world economies by a factor of 3.

Climbing the wall of worry
When markets rally despite a broad overhang of negative news and outlook, they are said to be 'climbing a wall of worry'. Indeed this happens rather frequently, more recently and prominently post the Feb-April 2020

Did Small-Caps rise from the dead?
The last few weeks have witnessed a hardly-precedented move in micro-, small- and mid-cap indices, but specifically small- and microcaps. A look at the SP400 (MDY, MidCap ETF), the Russell-2000 (RUT, SmallCaps) or the IWC

SMCI taps out
Wherever you encounter leadership in life, the behaviour of the leader will to a large degree shape the success and future of whatever undertaking they're leading - whether that's a family, a business, a project,

Why the US market has been crappy
Unless you've been living under a rock, or worse, are a 'long-term investor', you will know that opportunities in US equities have been bleak and the entire 2023 rally has been anemic in leadership. The 2020

The AI stock trading machine?
The recent boom around AI has led to a fully fledged change in market temperature, with mutual funds and retailers alike power-buying the large American tech stocks expected to benefit from AI - NVDA, AMD,

Beamr’s exuberance hits hard
It's been a couple of months since I wrote last about microcaps exploding on mindless bidding by retailers. The trend of the market remains up, but a general absence of strong leading stocks paired with