Hello friends,A lot has happened since my last market profile, and just like that one, this new one will be brief. Markets have first slid and then gapped-down in a moment where a need for de-risking met a market not at all priced for downside risk, followed
The S&P 500 has rallied 14.5% for twenty trading sessions, embedded within it one of the longest consecutive-day up-streaks since 2004. This advance, where popular indices have now fully retraced the losses triggered by the April 3rd selloff and marched beyond and the NASDAQ Composite
If the bond market had a social life, it would be canceling brunch and texting, "We need to talk." Once the boring uncle of financial markets, bonds are now hosting more drama than some 'celebrities-on-a-yacht' TV series. With junk bonds popping and Treasuries tanking, it's
It should come as no surprise to anyone that with a war on European soil, instability in numerous European countries, and a monumental push towards defense spending and NATO rearmament, companies supplying towards these ends should be expected to be doing quite fine.Indeed, as the
It might be too early to draw any valid conclusions, yet it sure appears that the lopsidedness of this market advance is finally chafing at its undercarriage like a good mix of salt and wet sand in the swimsuit on the beach.The current and highly-selective market advance
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The S&P 500 has rallied 14.5% for twenty trading sessions, embedded within it one of the longest consecutive-day up-streaks since 2004. This advance, where popular indices have now fully retraced the losses triggered by the April 3rd selloff and marched beyond and the NASDAQ Composite
If the bond market had a social life, it would be canceling brunch and texting, "We need to talk." Once the boring uncle of financial markets, bonds are now hosting more drama than some 'celebrities-on-a-yacht' TV series. With junk bonds popping and Treasuries tanking, it's
It should come as no surprise to anyone that with a war on European soil, instability in numerous European countries, and a monumental push towards defense spending and NATO rearmament, companies supplying towards these ends should be expected to be doing quite fine.Indeed, as the
It might be too early to draw any valid conclusions, yet it sure appears that the lopsidedness of this market advance is finally chafing at its undercarriage like a good mix of salt and wet sand in the swimsuit on the beach.The current and highly-selective market advance
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When people think about the stock market, two things often come to mind. One, the gambler, betting on stocks like horses in a race or numbers in a casino. Or, Two, the rational investor, long-term oriented and passively investing, or selecting companies by crunching numbers & analyzing
Money. As the universal medium for the exchange of value in our society, it has wide utility. One may gift it to their loved ones or people in need, hoard it under the mattress or in a bank, lend it out, use it to get
The Greek myth of Icarus is a classic – it is a cautionary tale reminding us that hubris, complacency, or unawareness of risk can bring down even the most popular high-flyers.Every bull market has a poster child, a cheerleader, a market seer – someone speaking
Two Sentiment Indicators That Matter
The stock market is driven by the psychology of those operating and participating in it. A very useful approach to spotting changing environments (usually measured in time-frames of many months at least) is looking at
A simple approach to sector rotation analysis
You might have heard of sector rotation, or sector rotation theory - it is often taught in economics and finance courses. It generally looks at what economic segments of the market are preforming better than
Life expectancy of trends
Not just living beings or material objects age with time - market trends grow old too.The stock market moves either up in the long-term (the primary up-trend) interspersed with shorter counter-trends (the secondary corrections), down
Dixon G. Watts’ Rules For The Fine Speculator
It has been my experience that the older a still available book on the markets is, the more timeless its lessons truly are - for they have stayed relevant through the ups and downs of
Darlings to Duds
It might be too early to draw any valid conclusions, yet it sure appears that the lopsidedness of this market advance is finally chafing at its undercarriage like a good mix of salt and wet sand in
Vodka Pump’n’Dump
Ah, Sweden. Beautiful country, beautiful people. Few people know that the flagship brand "Absolut Vodka" is actually Swedish, not Russian. With some days as short as six hours, alcohol can be a problem there. In
Leaders Cracking In The AI Rally
As discussed on numerous occasions before, the 2023/24 rally has been largely predicated on a lopsided rally of mega-cap tech stocks on the waves of generative AI, while the other market segments (specifically small growth)
Engine failure in the FOMO stocks?
As discussed previously, the 2023/24 market advance which was mostly predicated on extreme concentration and money selectivity towards the blue-chip glamour stocks of the day, is showing yet more signs of percolating weakness.A bull/bear ratio
The paper under your mattress
Here comes the pain” has become the mantra over the last year for people holding onto their darling stocks. The NASDAQ Composite has corrected 37% from November to its recent Low, index heavy-weights and blue-chips
Wait … just wait.
The markets are down – and to me, everything looks for them to stay so for the foreseeable future, barring some inevitable end-of-year volatility - possibly a late relief rally and most likely some late-December
The fallacy of valuations
I met a guy at the beginning of the year, who said that his calculations and online “research” had shown that Palantir (PLTR) was undervalued at $16, and that he had bought a sizable chunk